Saturday, March 23, 2013

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil stayed in range below 98.24 last week. With daily MACD staying below signal line, 98.24 should be a short term top and deeper decline is in favor. Below 94.97 will confirm this case and should bring deeper pull back to 55 days EMA (now at 92.47) and below. On the upside, break of 98.24 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, near term outlook is neutral at best.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed as a triangle consolidation pattern, no change in this view. And, such consolidation could still be in progress and Crude oil remains bounded in the converging range. Nonetheless, the pattern should be close to completion and an upside breakout should be seen soon. Above 100.42 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83. And in case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 77.28 to bring rebound.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Monthly Chart


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