Dollar Extends Recovery as Slip in Risk Adds Safe Haven Bid Euro Tumbles to Four Month Low as Systemic Crisis Fears Balloon British Pound Drops 80 Pips after BoE Warns on Banking Sector Japanese Yen Feels Same Risk Aversion Wave as Dollar, Needs Much More Canadian Dollar Fights Back Risk Trends with Biggest Jump in CPI in 22 Years Swiss Franc to Have its Safe Haven Appeal Tested Gold Starts to Taste the Anti-Euro Flows Range Trade Strategies work best in quiet market conditions - such as the Asia trading session Dollar Extends Recovery as Slip in Risk Adds Safe Haven Bid The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar (ticker = USDollar) extended its bullish run to a third day with this past session, but momentum continues to elude the currency market’s safe haven. Nevertheless, broad gains against most counterparts – even fellow safe haven yen – speaks to an individual strength for the greenback. The ‘risk’ element to the day is a factor with the S&P 500 closing slightly lower (European indexes were held onto their losses) and the VIX Volatility Index back above 13 percent. Yet, for the dollar to really start climbing universally, we need risk aversion to a far greater magnitude. Looking ahead, Thursday is the last trading day of the first quarter; so be careful of repositioning volatility. Euro Tumbles to Four Month Low as Systemic Crisis Fears Balloon Euro traders’ focus remains on the situation in Cyprus. At this point, the scenarios to the country’s future are well-known. And, while none of the paths are particularly encouraging; the kind of fear that transitions from country fear to regional fear isn’t as volatile. That said, each step in implementing the very unpopular capital controls and eventual bank levy on the nation’s financial system is a slow upgrade to the Eurozone’s pain. In this slow constriction on the country’s capital, investors see a truly disturbing precedence being set that can potentially be used by Greece, Spain or even Italy in the future. And, even if the probabilities are relatively low, the implications are so severe that the influence is strong. In the end, it is how the market bears the news that really matters to traders. On that front, Euro-region financial institution credit default risk continues to swell while sovereign yields for Spain, Greece and Slovenia (the next hot spot?) extended rallies. Tomorrow, as with the US, is the last trading day of the quarter for Europe with Cyprus set to open and the ECB expected to publish national bank deposit numbers. British Pound Drops 80 Pips after BoE Warns on Banking Sector The Sterling took a dive this past session, and some traders seemed to confuse the catalyst. While the updated 4Q GDP figures were certainly important in the bigger picture – tipping into a ‘triple dip’ recession carries a certain amount of concern for investors – this data was hardly surprising. As the final read for the indicator, we have seen no change to the previous 0.3 contraction and the components’ changes were not particularly dramatic. Where the data was priced in, the outcome of the Bank of England’s Capital Report offered a measurable level of surprise. According to the policy group, the region’s lenders have a 25 billion pound shortfall for capital. This ‘stress test’ is just as troubled as its US and Eurozone counterparts. Elsewhere, news circulated that Egan-Jones downgraded the UK another step from AA- to A+. Japanese Yen Feels Same Risk Aversion Wave as Dollar, Needs Much MoreLike the US currency, the Japanese yen was feeling the positive effects of risk aversion. Hardly a safe haven under the threat of massively distorting monetary policy programs, the currency instead responded through its carry trade role. While yields are still low on a historical level and there is limited participation in high-risk, low-volatility dependent investment strategies; the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) efforts to drive its currency lower has ensured this vein of carry trade certainly makes it into the realm of overextended. Therefore, as risk tapers as it did this past session, FX traders look to remove some exposure from these lofty heights. However, a true yen cross drop will require a lot more fundamental drive than the temporary setback witnessed Wednesday. With the BOJ expected to usher in the second coming of stimulus next week, many yen traders are firmly planted. In this morning’s session, BoJ Governor Kuroda will talk to the Upper House, but he is unlikely to divulge much more. Canadian Dollar Fights Back Risk Trends with Biggest Jump in CPI in 22 Years The Canadian docket held a modest level of market-moving potential this past session, but the inflation data squeezed as much impact out of the market that it could. The implementation of a new sales tax already lifted the economists’ expectations for the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but even their aggressive projections proved restrained. The 1.2 percent jump in the basket last month was the biggest swell since 1991. The level of surprise was enough to drive the Canadian dollar higher, but momentum would naturally be sabotaged by fundamentals. Inflation matters because it leverages interest rate expectations – something the loonie is particularly interested in. And, while the 1.2 percent annual figure increase picks up the pressure; this unusual increase is unlikely to set the Bank of Canada on pace for a hike. Swiss Franc to Have its Safe Haven Appeal Tested As the Eurozone’s financial troubles become more established, we will see the Swiss franc pick back up its mantle of safe haven. Of course, the currency no longer plays the part of a global ‘safe haven’ whereby a jump in fear leads pairs like USDCHF, GBPCHF and CADCHF to declines. Rather, this currency is specifically the foil of the Euro. To most other franc pairings (outside of EURCHF), the currency is essentially interchangeable for the euro – a side effect of introducing a floor. However, the EURCHF is perhaps the best gauge of systemic financial crisis in the broader European region that we have. With the knowledge that there is a hard floor at 1.2000 for the pair, the closer we come to that threshold, the less speculative participation there is and the greater the flow of capital committed to simply seeking stability. Gold Starts to Taste the Anti-Euro Flows Having stumbled the previous three trading days, gold finally posted a positive close Wednesday. Yet, there was certainly a lack of strength behind the commodity’s move. Not only does the 0.3 percent advance fail to erase the losses since Friday and fall well short of even returning to well-worn resistance in $1,617, it notable lacks for participation. Looking at commodity and ETF turnover on the day, we still see the steady downtrend in volume; while total physical holdings by exchange-traded products maintains the consistent unwinding. In other words, the day’s advance was far from convincing of trend. Fundamentally, the Euro-region financial concerns seem to have enough traction to lead capital into an alternative to assets and accounts denominated in the troubled currency. Should this situation continue to heat up and talk of renewed stimulus effort follow behind, gold will be in a particularly good position to take advantage. **For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar ECONOMIC DATA GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Lower GDP forecast may weigh on consumer confidence. The effect of rate cuts in 2012 showed signed of tapering off. The effect of rate cuts in 2012 showed signed of tapering off. Steady increasing profits led by agri. food processing and electricity. Broadest measure of money supply Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) BoE may extend its FLS program to maintain a low mortgage rate. Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) Unemployment rate has stayed at 6.9% for 5 consecutive months. Measure of monthly movements in gross value added for the service industries. Monthly report a timely update, but lacking for market movement Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) Personal consumption dropped nearly to 2010’s low, consumer cautious after budget cut. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) Ticked higher after a 4W decline. More manufacturing jobs creation has helped lower continuing claims. Higher commodity prices have boosted producers’ sentiment. National Consumer Price Index (YoY) Despite the massive stimulus program, structural problems persist. Weaker yen led to higher imported goods, thereby lowering disposable income and holding back inflation expectation. Jobless rate on a steady downtrend. Population decline and aging is a key concern. National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) 1Y Avg. -0.5; High 2.4; Low -4.1. 1Y Avg. -1.3; High 33.1; Low -38.6. BOJ Governor Kuroda to Speak at Parliament Cyprus Markets Expected to Reopen ECB Publishes National Bank Deposits, Balance Sheets ECB Reports Weekly LTRO Repayment Last Trading Day before Quarter End (1Q) SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT v --- Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here. Additional Content:Money Management Video Trading the News Video The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0 S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 1565.60, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposingthe 1575.10-76.10 area marked by the 50% Fib and the index’s record high. A break above that aims for the 61.8% level at 1584.50. Negative RSI divergence continues to warn of a forthcoming reversal however. The 1565.60 level has been recast as near-term support, with a move back below that eyeing the March 18 low at 1534.90. 
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0 GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing at a rising trend line set from late February (1595.41), with a break lower targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 1586.17. Near-term resistance is at 1616.98, the March 21 high. A reversal above that aims for a longer-term falling trend line at 1637.49. 
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0 CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are pulling back from resistance at 97.67, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term support is at 96.55, the 100% expansion, with a break beneath that eyeing a formerly broken falling trend line at 96.08. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance aims for the 138.2% Fib at 98.36. 
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0 Want to back-test your technical trading strategy? Download the historical data here.--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed 
Australian Dollar Aims Higher on RBA Rate Decision, US Data Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bullish The Reserve Bank of Australia returns to the spotlight in the week ahead. Economists expect the RBA to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3 percent. The markets seem to agree, with data compiled by Credit Suisse showing traders are pricing in a mere 8 percent probability of a 25 basis point reduction. Register HERE to take this short quiz assessing your FX trading knowledge and receive a learning curriculum based on your responses. That puts the onus on the statement accompanying the announcement as traders formulate expectations for the months ahead. Indeed, a trade-weighted index of the Aussie’s average value against its leading counterparts has recently tracked a Credit Suisse gauge measuring the one-year priced-in outlook for RBA policy with near-perfect precision (yielding a correlation reading of 0.9 on 20-day studies). The central bank’s position as stated over the past two months has favored a wait-and-see attitude. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has argued that there was time to allow prior easing efforts to fully filter into the broader economy before offering further accommodation. More of the same seems likely this time around, supporting the erosion of rate cut bets as well as the Aussie Dollar. Australian economic news-flow has been broadly encouraging since the central bank’s last sit-down, with a surge in employment in February marking a particularly strong data point. Although tightening monetary policy seems out of the question against a backdrop of lingering global financial market jitters (primarily emanating from the Eurozone), the urgency to stimulate further in the near term seems absent. On the risk appetite side of the equation, the focus will be on the US data docket. The resilience of recovery in the world’s largest economy in the face of mounting fiscal austerity (courtesy of tax hikes to avoid the “fiscal cliff” and “sequester” spending cuts) remains an important macro-level theme shaping the overall sentiment landscape. The March set of manufacturing- and service-sector ISM activity survey numbers as well as the closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls print take top billing. Expectations point to slight moderation on all fronts compared with February’s results. US economic data has tended to outperform relative to expectations since early February according to data from Citigroup however. More of the same is likely to be supportive of risk trends, pulling the high-yielding Aussie higher. -IS 
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0 --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed 
