iPad shipments could see first ever year-on-year decline in Q2, analyst says

iPad shipments could see first ever year-on-year decline in Q2, analyst saysGet the lowest prices anywhere on Macs and iPads with exclusive coupons: Apple Price Guide updated May 25th. (Get the lowest prices anywhere) HomeReviewsBackpagePrice GuidesNew MacsMacs with AppleCarePrevious MacsiPadsApple Wireless DevicesBid on New & Used Apple ProductsFollow UsTwitterFacebookGoogle+RSS Feeds & QriusiPhone AppTip UsSend us a tiptip us anonymouslyContact us by e-mailForumsAAPL: 445.15 ( +3.01 )Never miss an update Follow AppleInsiderFollow @AppleInsider –A+
Friday, May 24, 2013, 08:34 pm

iPad shipments could see first ever year-on-year decline in Q2, analyst saysBy Mikey Campbell

Due to a combination of seasonality and heightened competition from Android device makers, shipments of Apple's iPad may see a year-on-year drop for the first time since debuting in 2010, says KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.


In a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider, Kuo said that overall iPad shipments will experience a quarter-to-quarter decline of 20 to 25 percent, or 10 to 15 percent year-on-year, for the second quarter of 2013. The analyst based his prediction on sell-through, which is expected to hit 14 to 15 million units for the three-month period.

The dip shipments is thought to be a result of a glut of cheap Android tablet offerings this year, as well as a high comparison base from 2012 when the third-generation iPad launched.

Driving the decline is lowered iPad mini shipments, which are believed to see a roughly 40 percent quarter-on-quarter drop. Overall, Kuo forecasts a sell-in of around 12.7 million units for the three month period ending in June. Breaking the numbers down by model, the iPad mini is expected to see 6.2 million units shipped, while the latest fourth-generation iPad will see 4.5 million units. The entry-level iPad 2 will likely come in at around 2 million units shipped.

Finally, Kuo notes the third quarter will see growth as seasonality and an expected launch of a fifth-generation iPad boost shipments to first-quarter levels. However, the analyst points out that success is highly contingent on how attractive the supposedly slimmed-down "iPad 5" is to consumers.

A recent study conducted by IDC saw the iPad's share of the overall table market dip to 40 percent during the first quarter of the year. Year-over-year growth was still positive at 65 percent, but rival manufacturers Samsung and ASUS saw their share of the sector jump 283 percent and 350 percent from the year ago period, respectively. Tags:iPad miniJump to comments (87)Categories:iPad(function(d, s, id) { var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "//connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);}(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));Tweet!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); On Topic: iPadiPad shipments could see first ever year-on-year decline in Q2, analyst saysApple Store further drops refurbished 4th-gen iPad, iPad mini pricesApple's fifth-gen iPad rumored to debut after 'iPhone 5S,' feature rear micMicrosoft caught lying about tablet size in comparison to Apple's iPadDubai hotel provides guests with iMacs, 24-karat gold iPadToday's' HeadlinesNo news headlines yet todayRelated ArticlesNew iMacs expected to quadruple Apple's dismal Q3 desktop shipmentsRumor: Apple to cut iPad mini shipments by up to 20% in Q2, may signal next-gen modelIDC: iPad dipped to 40% of tablet shipments in Q1 2013Apple expected to ship 850K iPad minis in first week of salesAfter Q2 decline, Apple's iPad shipments expected to double in Q3 fiscal 2011 Previous Comments View Allsuddenly newton2013/05/24 08:40pm

There were always cheap tablets. That is not what is different about the second quarter.

rogifan2013/05/24 08:49pm

Hmm...a retina mini and thinner/lighter 5th gen iPad probably coming in the fall....nah that couldn't have anything to do with decline....

konqerror2013/05/24 08:59pm

Quote:Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton?

There were always cheap tablets. That is not what is different about the second quarter.
The difference is that cheap people are getting around to buying tablets. And people who aren't cheap already bought theirs.

jaayco2013/05/24 09:13pm

Does anyone seriously believe the 40% number? Maybe if we stopped comparing shipped android vs sold iPads... Who here lives somewhere that a majority of tablets they see in use are something other than an iPad? It's certainly not the case here in Australia.

jd_in_sb2013/05/24 09:17pm

Blockbuster numbers in the fall should take care of this dip.

lerxt2013/05/24 09:19pm

Asia is now Samsung territory, Apple product use has significantly declined. That has got to have a lot to do with it.

teaearlegreyhot2013/05/24 09:25pm

Something very fishy here. ?This story is current, right? ?And the analyst is predicting second quarter Apple results?

?

Quote:Kuo said that overall iPad shipments will experience a quarter-to-quarter decline of 20 to 25 percent, or 10 to 15 percent year-on-year, for the second quarter of 2013.?

?

Apple reported Second Quarter 2013 results on April 23rd, almost a month ago.

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/04/23Apple-Reports-Second-Quarter-Results.html

?

So Mr. Kuo can't even get his predictions right IN HINDSIGHT... ?This quote from the Apple link above:

?

Quote:Apple also sold 19.5 million iPads during the quarter, compared to 11.8 million in the year-ago quarter.

?

Now perhaps he's trying to make some statement about calendar year quarter 2, rather than fiscal year quarter 2, but in that case since Apple's quarters vary from other companies, it's going to be difficult to make an apples-to-apples comparison. ?Either way, I think Mr. Kuo is an apple short of a full bushel.

robin huber2013/05/24 09:39pm

IPad shipments aren't perpetually up quarter over quarter? Apple is doomed.

(Note from three years ago: "what's an iPad?")

macosxaddict2013/05/24 10:09pm

It is not really a fair YOY quarter comparision as last years quarter had a new iPad released in it while this years quarter has no new iPads.

drblank2013/05/24 10:10pm

I think there is a pent up demand for the new iPad 5 and iPad mini replacement. That's typically what happens.

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Gold Bullion decline is "a contrarian's dream scenario to us," Tocqueville exec says - Wealth Managers

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America (Free-Press-Release.com) April 12, 2013 -- The bottoming process in gold and gold mining shares continues to be an extended and frustrating affair. Nevertheless, the fundamental rationale for positioning physical bullion and gold mining shares seems more compelling than ever. ...

The accelerated decline in the first quarter of 2013, in our opinion, suggests a capitulative phase in which investors are giving up on the notion of exposure to gold, and especially gold mining shares. The mining shares, which were already historically cheap at the beginning of the quarter, became even cheaper. Intense liquidation of GLD and other gold ETFs during the quarter also seemed characteristic of a broad capitulation.

Gold, a favorite investment theme two years ago, has become toxic to many. To recap the factors we believe led to the decline: gold became overbought during the threatened government shutdown in August of 2011. As one of our favorite technicians stated, when the price of anything attempts to go parabolic, it must suffer from a hangover. ...

I believe that the precious metals sector has arrived at a significant bottom and that the next leg in the gold bull market is ready to commence. ...

The fundamental case for owning gold has improved since year end 2011. Real interest rates remain negative, worldwide quantitative easing has proliferated, and the events in Cyprus demonstrate that uninsured deposits in the commercial banking system are at risk in any resolution scenario. ...

The evidence shows strong macro fundamentals for gold, investor sentiment at a negative extreme and compelling valuations in the mining shares. It seems like a contrarian's dream scenario to us.

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Sales of specialty incandescent bulbs decline despite exemption from efficiency standards

April 2, 2013
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Electricity Manufacturers Association (NEMA).
Note: EISA is the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

Most specialty light bulb types, like three-way bulbs and appliance bulbs, are exempted from congressionally-legislated energy efficiency standards. But recent shipment data show that sales of these exempt incandescent lamps have declined. This effect points to broader lighting market transformation beyond the target of the original legislation, which was the more common general service bulbs.

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) established energy efficiency standards for most general service lamps that produce between 310 and 2,600 lumens of light output, essentially covering incandescent lights using between about 40 and 150 watts of power. Several specialty incandescent bulbs are exempted from the legislation and continue to be available in the marketplace, such as three-way lamps, appliance lamps, shatter-resistance lamps, and rough-service lamps, like those used in garage door openers.

As part of EISA, Congress required the Department of Energy (DOE) to evaluate and publish annual sales estimates of some of the exempt lighting types, starting in 2010. If sales in a given year are double the expected value (based on shipment data from 1990 to 2006), that exempt light type would then be subject to regulatory action.

For most of these exempt types, sales have been lower than expected. Indeed, sales began declining well in advance of the legislation's effective date, which began with brighter bulbs in January 2012 and will be phased in through January 2014.

Although not part of the DOE analysis, the reduced sales of these incandescent specialty bulbs could be attributable to market transformation to more efficient lighting, like compact fluorescent (CFL) and light-emitting diode (LED) bulbs. Several manufacturers offer CFL three-way bulbs to replace incandescent three-way bulbs. LEDs, which do not require filaments or glass enclosures, can be used in applications where shatter-proof or vibration-durable lights are needed.

More information about these exempt lighting types is available on DOE's website.

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Weekly Fundamentals - Brent Crude Extended Decline on Easing Iranian Tensions

ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Mar 02 13 04:19 ET

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