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Tuesday, May 28, 2013

iPad shipments could see first ever year-on-year decline in Q2, analyst says

iPad shipments could see first ever year-on-year decline in Q2, analyst saysGet the lowest prices anywhere on Macs and iPads with exclusive coupons: Apple Price Guide updated May 25th. (Get the lowest prices anywhere)

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Friday, May 24, 2013, 08:34 pm

iPad shipments could see first ever year-on-year decline in Q2, analyst saysBy Mikey Campbell

Due to a combination of seasonality and heightened competition from Android device makers, shipments of Apple's iPad may see a year-on-year drop for the first time since debuting in 2010, says KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

iPad mini

In a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider, Kuo said that overall iPad shipments will experience a quarter-to-quarter decline of 20 to 25 percent, or 10 to 15 percent year-on-year, for the second quarter of 2013. The analyst based his prediction on sell-through, which is expected to hit 14 to 15 million units for the three-month period.

The dip shipments is thought to be a result of a glut of cheap Android tablet offerings this year, as well as a high comparison base from 2012 when the third-generation iPad launched.

Driving the decline is lowered iPad mini shipments, which are believed to see a roughly 40 percent quarter-on-quarter drop. Overall, Kuo forecasts a sell-in of around 12.7 million units for the three month period ending in June. Breaking the numbers down by model, the iPad mini is expected to see 6.2 million units shipped, while the latest fourth-generation iPad will see 4.5 million units. The entry-level iPad 2 will likely come in at around 2 million units shipped.

Finally, Kuo notes the third quarter will see growth as seasonality and an expected launch of a fifth-generation iPad boost shipments to first-quarter levels. However, the analyst points out that success is highly contingent on how attractive the supposedly slimmed-down "iPad 5" is to consumers.

A recent study conducted by IDC saw the iPad's share of the overall table market dip to 40 percent during the first quarter of the year. Year-over-year growth was still positive at 65 percent, but rival manufacturers Samsung and ASUS saw their share of the sector jump 283 percent and 350 percent from the year ago period, respectively. Tags:iPad miniJump to comments (87)Categories:iPad(function(d, s, id) { var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "//connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);}(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));Tweet!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); Pin It

On Topic: iPadiPad shipments could see first ever year-on-year decline in Q2, analyst saysApple Store further drops refurbished 4th-gen iPad, iPad mini pricesApple's fifth-gen iPad rumored to debut after 'iPhone 5S,' feature rear micMicrosoft caught lying about tablet size in comparison to Apple's iPadDubai hotel provides guests with iMacs, 24-karat gold iPadToday's' HeadlinesNo news headlines yet todayRelated ArticlesNew iMacs expected to quadruple Apple's dismal Q3 desktop shipmentsRumor: Apple to cut iPad mini shipments by up to 20% in Q2, may signal next-gen modelIDC: iPad dipped to 40% of tablet shipments in Q1 2013Apple expected to ship 850K iPad minis in first week of salesAfter Q2 decline, Apple's iPad shipments expected to double in Q3 fiscal 2011 Previous Comments View Allsuddenly newton2013/05/24 08:40pm

There were always cheap tablets. That is not what is different about the second quarter.

rogifan2013/05/24 08:49pm

Hmm...a retina mini and thinner/lighter 5th gen iPad probably coming in the fall....nah that couldn't have anything to do with decline....

konqerror2013/05/24 08:59pm

Quote:Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton?

There were always cheap tablets. That is not what is different about the second quarter.
The difference is that cheap people are getting around to buying tablets. And people who aren't cheap already bought theirs.

jaayco2013/05/24 09:13pm

Does anyone seriously believe the 40% number? Maybe if we stopped comparing shipped android vs sold iPads... Who here lives somewhere that a majority of tablets they see in use are something other than an iPad? It's certainly not the case here in Australia.

jd_in_sb2013/05/24 09:17pm

Blockbuster numbers in the fall should take care of this dip.

lerxt2013/05/24 09:19pm

Asia is now Samsung territory, Apple product use has significantly declined. That has got to have a lot to do with it.

teaearlegreyhot2013/05/24 09:25pm

Something very fishy here. ?This story is current, right? ?And the analyst is predicting second quarter Apple results?

?

Quote:Kuo said that overall iPad shipments will experience a quarter-to-quarter decline of 20 to 25 percent, or 10 to 15 percent year-on-year, for the second quarter of 2013.?

?

Apple reported Second Quarter 2013 results on April 23rd, almost a month ago.

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/04/23Apple-Reports-Second-Quarter-Results.html

?

So Mr. Kuo can't even get his predictions right IN HINDSIGHT... ?This quote from the Apple link above:

?

Quote:Apple also sold 19.5 million iPads during the quarter, compared to 11.8 million in the year-ago quarter.

?

Now perhaps he's trying to make some statement about calendar year quarter 2, rather than fiscal year quarter 2, but in that case since Apple's quarters vary from other companies, it's going to be difficult to make an apples-to-apples comparison. ?Either way, I think Mr. Kuo is an apple short of a full bushel.

robin huber2013/05/24 09:39pm

IPad shipments aren't perpetually up quarter over quarter? Apple is doomed.

(Note from three years ago: "what's an iPad?")

macosxaddict2013/05/24 10:09pm

It is not really a fair YOY quarter comparision as last years quarter had a new iPad released in it while this years quarter has no new iPads.

drblank2013/05/24 10:10pm

I think there is a pent up demand for the new iPad 5 and iPad mini replacement. That's typically what happens.

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