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Showing posts with label Forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forecast. Show all posts
Friday, March 22, 2013
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
IEA Lowered Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast for 2013
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Mar 14 13 08:50 ET
Both the IEA and the EIA released their oil demand forecasts. The former estimated oil demand to grow +0.82M bpd this year, down -0.02K bpd from last month’s forecast. The agency said that deterioration in Chinese business sentiment, European slowdown and US budget cuts would weigh on the demand for oil worldwide. As stated in the report, the IEA expects “together these three economic ‘hits’, affecting as they do the three largest economies and oil consumers, appear to further delay an elusive turnaround in global economic and in turn oil demand, growth”. The EIA released their monthly Short Term Energy Outlook with no change in their projection for the year.
The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and delivered a rather dovish statement signaling that uneven recovery in New Zealand's economy would lead the central bank to maintain the OCR unchanged for the rest of the year. There are 3 issues that the RBNZ is worried the most. Strength in New Zealand dollar remained a key worry as exports were affected. Governor Wheeler warned that prolonged "overshooting" in the currency would trigger reduction in the OCR. Also, policymakers stressed that 'ongoing fiscal consolidation' would slow overall demand. The central bank also stated that 'worsening drought conditions are creating difficulty in much of the country'. Indeed, the drought condition has deteriorated since the RBNZ's economic forecasts and this would probably cause the central bank to lower its forecast of farm activity in the June MPS.
The SNB also left the 3-month LIBOR target at 0-0.25% with policymakers committing to maintain the minimum 1.20 EURCHF exchange rate “with utmost determination”. The central bank remained cautious about the global economic outlook, stating that 'global economic growth was rather weak in the fourth quarter'. Domestically, economic activity also moderated during the inter-meeting period with the jobless rate climbing up slightly. The central bank forecast GDP growth of 1.0–1.5% this year. The central bank said "downside risks to the Swiss economy remain considerable but tensions in the Eurozone might increase again. outlook. Based on the assumption of an unchanged 3-month Libor at 0.0% over the next 3 years, inflation rate would be around -0.2% for 2013, +0.2% for 2014 and +0.7% for 2015, compared to corresponding projections -0.1%, +0.4% and +0.7% previously. Policymakers saw 'no threat of inflation in Switzerland'. The central bank continued to express concerns about strength in CHF and stated that they would 'take further measures at any time" should conditions require. The franc plunged after the announcement.
On the dataflow, US initial jobless claims surprisingly fell to 332K in the week ended March 10, down from a upwardly revised 342K in the prior month.
Latest Analysis from this Author
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OPEC's Forecast on China's Demand Growth in Focus
ONG Focus | Insights | Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Mar 12 13 06:13 ET
Crude oil price retreated in European session. As the market awaits the OPEC’s monthly oil report, we expect the cartel would acknowledge that US’ imports of OPEC’s oil have continued to decline and a key reason to the situation is the rise in US production. Although OPEC remains contributing over 35% of the US crude imports, the amount has been on the fall steadily since the second half of 2008. In terms of volume, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela take up almost 60% of US’ imports from the OPEC while Angola and Nigeria have shown sharp declines. The implication on Brent crude is that, with the US a less popular destination for exports, producers would need to compete with other (such as Dubai crude) for shipment to other countries, such as those in Asia.
The market would probably be concerned about the new forecasts of global oil demand which are traditionally the most bearish one among the 3 major oil agencies (OPEC, IEA and EIA). The focus is whether there would be a downgrade on China’s demand outlook. If there’s such a case, we would expect the OPEC to consider production cut in coming months.
In the near-term, gold’s outlook should remain damped with ETF holdings weakening further and speculative positions of CFTC futures declining last week. The SPDR Gold Trust reported that holdings have dropped to 39.76M oz, the lowest level in October 2011, as of Monday. Speculative long positions of gold futures fell to 107.58K contracts in the week ended March 5, down -28.3% since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, retail demand has been soft since the beginning of the year with the US Mint reporting gold coin sales of 25K oz so in March.
On the dataflow, final estimate of Germany’s CPI stayed at +0.6% m/m in February. UK’s industrial production fell -2.9% y/y in January after a downwardly revised -2.1% a month ago. Manufacturing production slipped -3.0% y/y, following a -1.6% drop in December. Trade deficit narrowed to 8.2B pound in January from 8.9B pound in the prior month.
Latest Analysis from this Author
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook (Saturday, 16 March 2013 10:05 ET)Silver Weekly Technical Outlook (Saturday, 16 March 2013 10:05 ET)Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook (Saturday, 16 March 2013 10:05 ET)Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook (Saturday, 16 March 2013 10:04 ET)Weekly Fundamentals - WTI- Brent Spread Narrowed o... (Saturday, 16 March 2013 02:38 ET)Strong US Data Sent Shares to New Highs (Friday, 15 March 2013 01:03 ET)Economic Calendar 3/15/13 (Thursday, 14 March 2013 22:13 ET)IEA Lowered Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast for ... (Thursday, 14 March 2013 08:50 ET)Crude Weakened on Inventory Increase (Wednesday, 13 March 2013 23:14 ET)Economic Calendar 3/14/13 (Wednesday, 13 March 2013 23:12 ET)
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