Financial markets rallied on Tuesday amid hopes that the Fed would continue it ultra accommodative monetary policies. Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s Government Work Report outlined a relatively conservative macroeconomic policy framework for this year. Wall Street surged. The DJIA broke above the all-time high made on October 2007 and gained +0.89% while the S&P 500 index added +0.96%. In the commodity sector, the front-month contract for WTI crude oil snapped a 3 day decline and rebounded to 90.82, up +0.78%, at close, while the Brent crude contract jumped for the first time in 6 days, gaining +1.38% at 111.61. Gold continued to hover within a narrow range above 1550 as investors favored higher risk assets amid rising hopes of global economic growth.
Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen echoed Chairman Bernanke’s dovish comments that benefits of asset buying outweigh the costs. In a speech in Washington, Yellen stated that “turning to the potential costs of the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, there are some that definitely need to be monitored over time”. Yet, “at this stage, I do not see any that would cause me to advocate a curtailment of our purchase program". She added, “at this stage, there are some signs that investors are reaching for yield, but I do not now see pervasive evidence of trends such as rapid credit growth, a marked buildup in leverage or significant asset bubbles that would clearly threaten financial stability”.
At his last Government Work Report, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao unveiled that the government retained its GDP growth target of +7.5% but reduced the CPI target to +3.5% from +4% last year. This was compared with PBOC Deputy Governor Yi Gang’s CPI forecast of +3% in 2013. The report showed optimism over the country’s economic outlook. While the economic recovery after the global financial crisis remained "full of uncertainty and not yet on a stable footing”, the "considerably increased capacity" in the manufacturing sector, "significantly improved" infrastructure, high savings rates and large workforce act as "favorable conditions and positive factors" to sustain economic developments.
On oil inventory, the industry-sponsored API estimated that crude inventory added +5.6 mmb in the week ended March 1. For oil products, the API report showed that gasoline and distillate inventories dropped -0.91 mmb and -1.7 mmb. The official DOE/EIA might report today a +1.1 gain in crude during the week. Gasoline and distillate stocks probably dropped -1.6 mmb and -1.3mmb respectively.
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